Will we be walking in a winter wonderland?

Winter weather is right around the corner and with the cooler temperatures and shorter days come the varying predictions on just how mild, or how harsh, this winter will be.
Many turn to the Farmer's Almanac to determine what the upcoming winter will look like. However, with only an 80 percent accuracy rate and predictions based on solar activity, one probably shouldn't plan an outdoor event based on the almanac just yet. But, for those curious about what the almanac says about this winter, it predicts that temperatures will be slightly colder and drier than normal with below normal snowfall. The coldest periods are expected in early to mid-January and mid-February. Snow is expected as early as next week, just in time for carving the turkey and squeezing the cranberry sauce out of the can. Snow is also predicted for late December, mid to late January, early and mid-February and early March.
Snow at Thanksgiving would be somewhat unusual for this area. According to Dave Starner, superintendent of the Northern Piedmont Agricultural Research Station, the average date of the first flakes falling in the county is Dec. 4.
Even when snow does fall, it is likely to be a big wet one because of the way storms travel. Moist tropical air from the Atlantic, Pacific and Indian Oceans runs up against cold, dry air from the North and South poles causing fronts, clouds and storms to form. Heavy snow comes from cold fronts while deep snow comes from warm fronts. Along the same lines, El Nino is expected to be a dominate climate factor influencing winter weather from December through February.
"We expect El Nino to strengthen and persist through the winter months, providing clues as to what the weather will be like during the period," Mike Halpert, deputy director of the National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center, said. "Warmer ocean water in the equatorial Pacific shifts the patterns of tropical rainfall that in turn change the strength and position of the jet stream and storms over the Pacific Ocean and the U.S."
For Orange County, this means below-average temperatures, similar to what the almanac predicts. As for snowfall, the University of Virginia Climatology Office states the area will probably see anywhere between 12 to 24 inches of snow during the winter.
"With El Nino [occurring in previous years] it created wet weather [so that may happen again]," Starner said. "Right now, we are really running normal. Last week we got out of ‘drier than normal’ and now I think we may even be above normal, precipitation-wise, for the month of November."
As for trying to determine winter weather by looking at wooly worms, something many people say works, it's highly unlikely to yield accurate results. According to Starner, the color and size of the worms have less to do with weather prediction and more to do with conditions being wetter than usual.
"If a person predicts an earthquake every year and it finally happens is he a hero?" Starner asked in regard to predicting weather with worms. "Probably not."
Winter weather awareness week will be held Nov. 29 through Dec. 5.