20-20 vision?

In many ways, driving Orange County's Route 20 is a trip down memory lane, a journey through history and an unaltered glimpse of the past. But in the future, experts don't expect the Constitution Highway will be the road less traveled as the number of commuters increases proportionately with the population. Down the road, predicted traffic increases and necessary safety improvements may turn 20 from two lanes to four in the not-too-distant future.
A 2006 study of Route 20 conducted by the Rapidan-Rappahannock Regional Commission forecasted that travelers in years to come on Route 20 as it is today will experience increasingly high levels of congestion, underperforming intersections and travel delays. Based on the study's moderate and high-growth scenarios, the recommendation to county officials was the same: Begin setting the wheels in motion for widening most of Route 20 by the year 2030.
And the first step, the study suggested, was for preservation of right-of-ways for a future, four-laned highway.
Current county leaders have different opinions about the prospect of expanding Route 20. Supervisors whose districts include stretches of Route 20 don't agree that a multi-million dollar widening will make for a safer route, because they say driver safety won't be measurably improved. But what's crystal clear, they concur, is that nobody will see more lanes until the economy rebounds.
District 2 Supervisor Zack Burkett said while Route 20 has been associated with scores of collisions and accidents, four-laning the road may not be best way to improve driver safety. In fact, if county and state officials are spending time and resources to consider a massive widening effort on Route 20, more realistic, more effective and more affordable safety improvements will fall by the wayside, according to Burkett.
"The reason I think all the discussion is dangerous, in addition to being naive, is it stops us from looking at things that we can really do that helps solve the problem," he explained.
Already, without doubling the number of lanes, accident totals are on the decline as a result of law enforcement and as a result of the addition of signs, turn lanes and other features at some of Route 20's most notorious stretches, Burkett continued.
"We have made great progress in the last two years, just look at the figures. First, we now have a traffic division in the sheriff's office that is doing an outstanding job," he said. "Second, improving intersections and turn lanes has been a lifesaver on Route 20."
Burkett said with funding for future improvements, similar to what's been put in place at Route 601 and at Route 522, the safety factor for travelers on Route 20 will continue to improve. In particular, Burkett said roadwork associated with the Walmart project on Route 3 could provide critical steps forward to an already heavily traveled stretch of county road.
"Walmart will give us a lot of road improvements if we can ever get the nuts off our backs and they can start building," Burkett said.
By his estimation, population increase and the corresponding higher number of cars on county roads is skewed. "That traffic study that everyone quotes (which was done at the height of the growth boom) said that there might be enough traffic on Route 20 to consider widening it in a decade. Growth has stopped."
Burkett said developers' proffers and targeted patrols by law enforcement stand a far greater chance of improving safety than the possibility of widening Route 20 ever would, because they're affordable, and they're attainable. But putting all the pieces into place to fund and permit four lanes? That's little more than a pipe dream, according to Burkett. It's more realistic, he continued, to count on additional proffered road improvements and funding for sheriff's deputies to help save lives on Route 20.
"There is no money and there may not be any money in our lifetimes. We will always be way back in line from Northern Virginia where the votes are," Burkett said. "So, unless the tooth fairy changes the law of the land and drops a lot of quarters under our pillows, it is just not going to happen."
District 3 Supervisor Teel Goodwin said he expects to see a widened Route 20 appear on the VDOT six-year plan within the next few years. Of course, that doesn't mean crews will be out on the Constitution Highway closing lanes and flagging traffic while asphalt trucks lay down new lanes on what were formerly front yards.
"Realistically, I think it is a decade or more away," Goodwin predicted. In the meantime, he continued, before that 10-year-away project can even get underway, there are a few rather large details that will need to be nailed down.
Goodwin predicted five years could pass before widening Route 20 was even added to VDOT's six-year plan. Currently, as a result of massive budget cuts to VDOTs resources, no roads are being added to the six-year plan. The commonwealth's economic situation-now operating with a $2 billion deficit-would have to make significant strides towards recovery before even a request for paving a narrow country lane can make it onto VDOT's things to do list. In the meantime, easements and condemnations would be required in order to secure sufficient right of way.
But even with right of way secured and the project on VDOT's radar, there's still the gargantuan task of negotiating with the National Park Service for right of way on stretches of road owned by the federal government. Burkett said it would take a "special act of Congress to four-lane Route 20, [because] the Park Service owns the road bed through the Wilderness."
By the time conditions are right and stars align for Route 20 to double the existing number of lanes, Goodwin estimated, "conservatively," a cost of about $275,000 per mile. And with paving and widening suggested for about 20 miles, Goodwin figured the final price might be close to $10 million by the time the project is actually on track.
District 4 Supervisor Teri Pace said turning two lanes into four in the name of creating a safer road could actually result in a higher number of accidents.
"I think four-laning Route 20 would make it far more dangerous with higher speeds and a much higher level of cut-through traffic," Pace said. "I think we are best served by ensuring that we keep up with safety improvements and enforcement. There has been a dramatic drop in accidents since the board of supervisors focused on that effort. Those positive statistics should reinforce the continuation of these successful policies."
Besides the expense and effort-counterproductive or not-Pace said she can't support displacing landowners who live right along the road or slicing off the portion of their property that fronts the road in order to establish right of way.
"Because of the numerous driveways and entrances on Route 20, I think VDOT would require access roads along much of Route 20 which would mean six lanes not four. Many homes would be condemned because they would be too close or in the roadway."
According to Pace, there may be alternatives to a highway widening which could still offer a degree of increased safety, and at a lower cost to taxpayers.
"Some citizens have suggested that pull-off shoulders should be established along Route 20 for school buses so that traffic can get by. I think that would be a worthwhile safety improvement to investigate," she said.
VDOT spokesperson Lou Hatter said it's hard to generate precise figures and timeframes for a future, and for now strictly hypothetical road construction project. But long before a wider Constitution Highway could ever make it onto a road crews' things-to-do list, there's a mountain of engineering, planning and budgetary details that would have to be ironed out, Hatter said.
According to VDOT's procedures, years' worth of studying would have to be completed, including an assessment of possible environmental and economic impacts, as well as an analysis of the impact what a drastic infrastructure change could have on community members. And businesses, houses and other existing structures situated on what would become a turn lane or a soft shoulder, for example, would have to be relocated.
"Since the question involves improvements to an existing road the process is a bit different than planning and building a new road from scratch, but it still requires involvement of the local government, residents and other interested parties, and approval from the Commonwealth Transportation Board," Hatter said.
But perhaps more importantly, VDOT wouldn't be able to set the ball in motion until funds became available. At least in the short term, there's no room in the state budget for four-laning Route 20.